Which weather forecasts made money on Kalshi?

Fifty Weather benchmarks the trading performance of 10 leading weather models, every day, for every Kalshi Daily High Temperature market.

Fifty Weather Hall of Fame — record cards and Best Single Day leaderboard
Performance Spotlight

Did you know one model recently won 25 out of 30 days in Austin?

Last month, a single weather model dominated the Kalshi Austin High Temperature contracts, achieving a staggering 74.6% ROI. This is a perfect example of the trackable edges shifting across the platform every single day. During the exact same timeframe, a completely different model quietly took the lead in another city — proving that the "best" forecast changes dynamically based on location and shifting weather patterns. Fifty Weather puts a spotlight on these performance trends in real-time so you can always see which model has performed best.

HRRR 00z
Top-Performing Model
25 / 30
Winning Trading Days
+74.6%
Austin Market Return
Transparent Methodology

Real forecasts. Real market prices. Benchmarked trade performance.

We benchmark the performance of 50 weather market contracts priced at specific times for a variety of forecast models. Every trading strategy uses public forecasts, real prediction market pricing, and real fees — so you can see how each strategy performed using official market results.

The Austin Simulation Case Study

Example Benchmark: Kalshi Austin Daily High Temperature Market

The system pulls the HRRR forecast model run available at exactly 10:00 AM for the target date, then maps the raw temperature output directly to its exact Kalshi contract strike bracket. It simulates an order book pull of 50 Yes shares at that precise moment, factoring in live exchange fees — then holds through next-day official settlement and logs the precise net return or loss to the strategy ledger.

Time: 10:00 AM Model: HRRR Model Run: 12z Volume: 50 Yes Shares Bracket: 94 - 95 Cost: $36.79

The Automated System Ledger

🟢 Stage 1: Ingesting Forecast Data
SYSTEM INITIALIZED Extracting target forecast model run.

🟢 Stage 2: Mapping Contract Bracket
BRACKET MATCHED Translating raw temperature to Kalshi strike.

🟢 Stage 3: Simulating Price Book
BOOK CALCULATED Appraising 50 Yes shares + exchange fees.

🟢 Stage 4: Settling Ledger Analytics
STATS LOGGED Verifying NWS results & minting benchmarks.
Comprehensive Market Coverage

More markets, more strategies, more chances to find what pays.

Every city behaves differently — different climate patterns, different forecast model strengths, different trading windows. Fifty Weather tracks all of them, every day, so you can see how each market has actually performed.

Live Markets

  • Atlanta KATL
  • Austin KAUS
  • Boston KBOS
  • Chicago KMDW
  • Dallas KDFW
  • Denver KDEN
  • Houston KHOU
  • Las Vegas KLAS
  • Los Angeles KLAX
  • Miami KMIA
  • Minneapolis KMSP
  • New Orleans KMSY
  • New York KNYC
  • Oklahoma City KOKC
  • Philadelphia KPHL
  • Phoenix KPHX
  • San Antonio KSAT
  • San Francisco KSFO
  • Seattle KSEA
  • Washington D.C. KDCA
Map of Fifty Weather covered markets across the United States
Every Kalshi weather market covered today. Full Polymarket coverage coming soon.
Our Data Integrity Standard

No hype. No hot tips. Just the hard numbers.

No look-ahead bias

Every simulation only uses information a real trader could have had at that exact split second.

No cherry-picking

Every strategy we test is included in the final results registry, win or lose.

Nothing edited after the fact

Every result is locked down as a permanent, unalterable historical record.

See which strategies actually paid off in Austin.

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