Fifty Weather benchmarks the trading performance of 10 leading weather models, every day, for every Kalshi Daily High Temperature market.
Last month, a single weather model dominated the Kalshi Austin High Temperature contracts, achieving a staggering 74.6% ROI. This is a perfect example of the trackable edges shifting across the platform every single day. During the exact same timeframe, a completely different model quietly took the lead in another city — proving that the "best" forecast changes dynamically based on location and shifting weather patterns. Fifty Weather puts a spotlight on these performance trends in real-time so you can always see which model has performed best.
We benchmark the performance of 50 weather market contracts priced at specific times for a variety of forecast models. Every trading strategy uses public forecasts, real prediction market pricing, and real fees — so you can see how each strategy performed using official market results.
The system pulls the HRRR forecast model run available at exactly 10:00 AM for the target date, then maps the raw temperature output directly to its exact Kalshi contract strike bracket. It simulates an order book pull of 50 Yes shares at that precise moment, factoring in live exchange fees — then holds through next-day official settlement and logs the precise net return or loss to the strategy ledger.
Every city behaves differently — different climate patterns, different forecast model strengths, different trading windows. Fifty Weather tracks all of them, every day, so you can see how each market has actually performed.
Every simulation only uses information a real trader could have had at that exact split second.
Every strategy we test is included in the final results registry, win or lose.
Every result is locked down as a permanent, unalterable historical record.
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